To everyone’s surprise, after a month’s hard fighting in Ukraine, the Russian army is now effectively fully committed. There are no more large regular, active forces available elsewhere in the country to replace its combat losses or to rotate the forces currently fighting as they grow tired. Studies suggest soldiers should not spend more than 60 days in combat before being rested, others argue for 45 days before they are ineffective. Russian forces reach 60 days in late April. With its offensive operations thwarted, losses mounting and morale declining, time is running out for Russia’s army in Ukraine.
Russia could quickly agree a peace treaty but seems disinterested in this. Ukraine’s chief negotiator considers Russia believes it can yet win sizeable battlefield victories that allow it to dictate the terms that end the war. To do this, Russia must break the present stalemate and this requires combat escalation. The preparatory steps for this are underway.
Please click here to read the full “Time and troops in finite supply for Russia’s army in Ukraine” article published at The Interpreter, written by Griffith Asia Insitute Visiting Fellow, Dr Peter Layton.
