Russia’s war has stalled. There are small advances, but at high cost. Russian forces started the war with simultaneous attacks across Ukraine. They have not been able to do such advances for almost two weeks now.
The Ukrainian armed forces are taking advantage of this and inflicting a grinding rate of attrition. Worse, the Russian force’s lines of resupply are long, under attack and unable to be adequately protected. There is already an insurgency underway in areas that Russia claims it has captured; really, Russia only “holds” some major roads connecting Russia to its forward deployed forces.
The next major event will be the capture of Mariupol, where 350,000 people are reported to remain. This capture is a model of how Russia will now try to achieve victory: the extensive use of missiles, rockets, cannons and artillery to bombard the civilian areas in an attempt to force a surrender without having to mount a major urban assault. This is against the laws of armed conflict as Russian military commanders are well aware.
Please click here to read the full “Scenarios for the war in Ukraine” article published at The Interpreter, written by Griffith Asia Insitute Visiting Fellow, Dr Peter Layton.
