China’s territorial expansion in the South China Sea will probably continue unabated this year. For the past several years, balancing and a rules-based order have been advocated as sensible counters even while they continue to fail.
Balancing involves building up military forces, deepening alliances and developing defence industries. Japan’s China strategy is an example. Balancing works by threatening violence to dissuade an adversary taking unwanted actions. In the case of the South China Sea, this seems incredible.
No one wants a war with China over a few islands or even a large sea. The costs would be too high, the returns too low. Moreover, China is using a carefully calibrated blend of naval, coastguard, private and commercial means in its territorial expansion. Using military force in response seems grossly inappropriate.
To read the full “South China Sea: Beijing could get the wrong idea from our stance” article by Griffith Asia Institute Visiting Fellow Peter Layton, please visit The Australian.
