The political situation in Myanmar as of 16 August 2023
Recently, the military junta has extended the country’s state of emergency, delayed another election, and has announced the partial pardon of Aung San Suu Kyi.
In the National Defense and Security Council meeting on 31 July 2023, the junta extended the state of emergency it imposed when the army seized power from an elected government in February 2021. The extension has been set for another six months starting from 1 July 2023. According to the junta, the extension is based on the need to prepare for the election. The state of emergency allows the military to assume all government functions, including giving the head of the ruling military council, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, legislative, judicial, and executive powers. In addition, Myanmar’s military has also postponed the election which was promised to be conducted in August this year. The junta claimed that with the state of emergency in place if the election were to be organised, it would cause violence. The military administration believes that the ongoing turmoil would impede a truly free and fair election and more time is needed to prepare for a smooth election.
Moreover, the junta has also announced a partial pardon for the ousted democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi, reducing her 33–year sentence by six years. Aung San Suu Kyi has been convicted of 19 offenses, including corruption, in the aftermath of the coup. However, as the junta announced that five cases have been pardoned, including breaching a natural disaster mitigation law while campaigning during COVID, 14 more offenses will remain—meaning she still must serve a total of 27 years out of the 33 years she originally was imprisoned for. Besides Suu Kyi, former president Win Myint has been also granted a pardon in which his jail term will be reduced by four years but it is likely that both Suu Kyi and Myint would remain under house arrest and would not be free from detention.
The junta’s extension of the state emergency and the election postponement can imply that the army does not exercise enough control to organise the polls and has failed to subdue widespread opposition to the military rule, including increasingly challenging armed resistance as well as nonviolent protests and civil disobedience. Nay Phone Latt, a spokesperson for the National Unity Government said that the extension of the state of emergency is because “the generals have a lust for power and don’t want to lose it” while the US State Department said extending the state of emergency would plunge the country “deeper into violence and instability”.
With regards to the partial pardon of Suu Kyi, some analysts described it as a “cosmetic move” and “this is a signal to the international community—without doing anything substantive” while her son believed that it is absolutely nothing and “the whole world knows the military have played these games with propaganda, trying to make themselves look better on occasion”. The US said it “has repeatedly called on the military to immediately release Aung San Suu Kyi” and “urge the junta to end the violence, allow unhindered humanitarian access and engage with all stakeholders on Myanmar’s future”.
The junta created many excuses to remain in power while appealing to the international community with Suu Kyi’s partial pardons. But realistically, both Aung San Suu Kyi and Myanmar’s control are still in the junta’s grip.
The United States and China’s current engagement with Southeast Asia
As the United States and China are locked in an increasingly intense rivalry, the Southeast Asian region has been seeing different degrees of engagement from the US and China.
United States President Joe Biden announced that he would be traveling to Vietnam “shortly” partly because Vietnam wanted to elevate its relationship with the United States and become a major partner of the US. In March, both countries’ leaders had a phone call to discuss the expansion of the relationship and how to address regional challenges. Hence it has been speculated that both the US and Vietnam will announce a major upgrade in their diplomatic relations before the end of 2023.
With no further information on the travel, John Kirby, the White House National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communication, said the relationship between Hanoi and Washington is “improving and it is improving across lots of sectors—in the security world, certainly diplomatically, and even economically”. Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, said “This is an auspicious time to elevate our existing partnership” and with 10 years of comprehensive partnership, it is “a good moment to go even further”.
On the other hand, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Singapore, Malaysia, and Cambodia from 10–13 August 2023, to bolster strategic communication with the three Southeast Asian countries. The visit started in Singapore, on 11 August, where Wang Yi met with Prime Minister (PM) Lee Hsien Loong, Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, and Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan to deepen ties. Singapore has expressed in-principle support for China to join the CPTPP and welcomed China’s application to the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA) so as to facilitate digital trade and create a framework for the digital economy.
Moreover, the Chinese Foreign Minister visited Malaysia, from 11–12 August, and met with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Foreign Minister Zambry Abdul Kadir, Transport Minister Loke Siew Fook, and caretaker Penang Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow. Wang Yi and PM Anwar discussed various aspects of cooperation and collaboration with a focus on investments, education, and regional issues. The visit also highlighted the good achievement in the Belt and Road projects in Malaysia such as the East Coast Rail Link and the “Two Countries, Twin Parks” projects. China and Malaysia have pledged to share market opportunities and expand cooperation fields.
Wang Yi’s Southeast Asia trip concluded in Cambodia, on 13 August, where he met with PM Hun Sen, designated PM Hun Manet, and other top officials. Wang Yi reaffirmed China’s commitment to Cambodia after PM Hun Sen handed over the job to his son. China has pledged to promote cooperation between the two countries while Cambodia has also pledged to uphold the unchanged position towards the One-China policy. Wang also reaffirmed Beijing’s “unwavering commitment” to respecting Cambodian sovereignty and conveyed Beijing’s support for the Kingdom. Many believed the Chinese Foreign Minister’s visit to the three ASEAN states is to showcase China’s deeper economic integration in the region that is not undermined by the United States.
It seems that Southeast Asia’s neutrality, under the ASEAN motto, provides a space for the US and China to compete in which Beijing appears to have an upper hand, compared to the US.
Sovinda Po is a Research Assistant at the Griffith Asia Institute.
