The past fortnight helped negate an old stereotype associated with Australian foreign policy, one that characterises Canberra as too beholden to great powers to be taken seriously. In the past two weeks, Canberra proved that not only is it not afraid of standing up to China, it is also willing to reject US positions and statements, even under the stresses and strains of a pandemic and an economic downturn. This paves the way for middle powers to chalk their own path in upholding the rules-based order at a time when the two superpowers are at loggerheads.

Australia’s ‘activism’ to lead the call for a global inquiry into the origins of Covid-19 has attracted the wrath of the Chinese Communist Party; this fortnight, the Chinese ambassador to Canberra, Cheng Jingye, warned of a possible Chinese consumer backlash against Australian goods, if Australia continued down this path. His comments were criticised by Foreign Minister Marise Payne, who termed it as an attempt at ‘economic coercion’ and reiterated the international community’s right to seek an independent investigation into the causes of the pandemic. Australia has also called for an independent inquiry into wet markets.

The Chinese embassy Down Under also broke diplomatic protocol to release the transcript of the call between Australian Foreign Secretary Frances Adamson and Ambassador Cheng to talk over the spat. Further, the Victorian Chinese Consul General gatecrashed a press conference by Australian Health Minister Greg Hunt, at the invitation of billionaire Andrew Forrest, and used it to promote Beijing’s line on Covid-19. Unsurprisingly, this has created a furore about the extent of Chinese influence over the business community Down Under. Overall, it might be safe to say that Sino-Australian relations are at an all-time low.

Australia also found it necessary to reject an ongoing theory being persistently circulated in the US that Covid-19 is a man-made virus, after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo repeated it during an interview purportedly citing ‘intelligence reports’. The Australian intelligence community has rejected these claims and said that the ‘report’ in question didn’t contain any intelligence finding and was a collection of press coverage of the issue.

Pompeo used some tough language on China, saying that the country ‘had a history of infecting the world’. Analysts say that the Trump administration’s increasing attacks on Beijing are part of its efforts to deflect criticism of their handling of the pandemic and more crucially, are meant to shield Trump in his bid to regain the presidency at the end of the year. Canberra is concerned that the overt politicisation of the crisis by the US will further entrench US-China rivalry, preventing any possibilities of cooperation and more importantly, will detract from efforts to stop the illegal wildlife trade and the elimination of wet markets.

Australia, last month, also imposed a compulsory ‘code of conduct’ on Facebook, Google, Apple and Amazon, and directed the first two to share their profits with local media companies, since they depended so heavily on the content generated by the latter. In the process, Australia became the first nation to tap into the relentless growth of these tech giants and to make them act fairly. Reports say that many nations, including the US, are watching this development closely as they too contemplate similar moves.

As Peter Hartcher puts it, this act of defying China and American corporate giants, ‘represent(s) a remarkable moment in Australia’s national self-assertion.’

Speaking of US-China rivalry, Reuters has revealed the contents of a report drafted last month by the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, a thinktank connected to the Chinese Ministry of State Security, which warned of a possible armed confrontation between the Washington and Beijing in the wake of Covid-19. CICIR also noted that there was a wave of anti-China sentiment across the globe, not seen since the Tiananmen massacre of 1989.

Talks of a new Cold War are now coming from Chinese quarters, in light of the tensions between the US and China which are quickly ramping up in the South China Sea. At the time of writing, it’s being reported that Beijing is planning to establish an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) in the a part of the disputed sea, details of which are yet to be confirmed.

Indonesian foreign minister Retno Marsudi, this week, expressed worries over recent tensions in the South China Sea, adding that they may escalate rapidly in the current circumstances. Claimants to the SCS disputes, including the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam have all been targeted by China in the past month. However, as Euan Graham warns, there’s little hope that these Southeast Asian nations would want to align more closely to the US now, given Trump’s ‘brash diplomacy’ in the region and it’s more likely that they’ll further fold into China’s economic ‘embrace’.

 In this context, it’s interesting to note that the Trump administration is reportedly planning to levy new tariffs on Beijing in an effort to ‘turbocharge’ a move to push global industrial supply chains out of China. The US plans to create an ‘Economic Prosperity Network’ of ‘trusted partners’ comprising entities from Australia, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and Vietnam, to restructure the supply chains and transform digital business, energy, infrastructure, research, trade, education, among others. This has, unsurprisingly, renewed calls for the inclusion of countries such as Vietnam and South Korea into a ‘Quad Plus’ formulation.

Moving on to another part of the Indo-Pacific, India extended its month-long lockdown by another two weeks, denominating several coloured zones to denote the severity level of the restrictions. Analysts, however, are warning about the harsh economic repercussions of the continued lockdown and are calling for major relief for businesses and industry, and a gradual opening up of lesser affected areas.

In news likely to have flown below the radar, Down Under at least, there are reports that China is interfering heavily in Nepalese politics to protect the communist government currently in power. While major powers have a tendency to meddle into the domestic politics of neighbouring states, China’s growing clout in South Asia is a major cause for worry for New Delhi, and is likely to intensify Sino-Indian rivalry in the subcontinent.

At the time of writing, it’s being reported that Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Scott Morrison are planning a virtual ‘summit’ soon after their planned January summit this year had to be cancelled due to the Australian bushfires. On the agenda, among other things, is a Mutual Logistics Sharing Pact, which is likely to greatly synergise naval ties between the two sides and further augment maritime cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. Australia and India have found common ground in recent times where both sides have talked about reforming the World Health Organization rather than jettisoning it, a la the US.

Significance for Australia

‘Australia the lickspittle, it seems, is becoming a lion’.

Peter Hartcher captures the significance of this moment in Australia’s contemporary history, in which it has shown immense courage and maturity in navigating a crisis-stricken world made worse by two unpredictable superpowers. Not only is Canberra setting an example for other democracies, it is also reasserting its own national interest in keeping alive a rules-based order in the absence of leadership from either superpower.

The CICIR report predicting an imminent clash between China and the US would be read very closely by the policy mandarins Down Under. China’s recent diplomatic stance definitely reflects the adoption of the Wolf Warrior approach, and more broadly, indicates that Beijing isn’t in a mood to cooperate and play a good global citizen. That presents problems for everyone, including Canberra, which still sees merit in engaging rather than combating with Beijing.

The Australian business community’s interests in preventing the Canberra-Beijing bridge from burning down, while understandable, need to be reassessed in light of preserving our national security interests. As Peter Jennings notes, it’s time for Australia to reduce our economic dependence on China. The US initiative to rethink global supply chains is a necessary first step in this regard and Australia must put its full weight behind it. Deepening our ties with like-minded partners is essential for that and Australia is well-placed to reap the benefits of an Indo-Pacific policy vision that has guided its actions for the past 7 years.

AUTHOR

Aakriti Bachhawat is a Researcher with the Defence and Strategy team at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, and Research Assistant at the Griffith Asia Institute.