With the increase in human activity, our natural environment has changed significantly. China’s epidemics stemming from wildlife will continue to rise in 2020. Unlike African swine fever which has a higher risk of occurrence and further transmission in wild boar populations, the risk of spreading bird flu, rabies, plague, and other zoonotic infectious disease pathogens to humans persists.
The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan quickly spread throughout China and the world. As no drug has been developed for treating coronaviruses, the outbreak causes a negative impact on economic development and their social consequences.
Dr Lili Mi from the Department of Business Strategy and Innovation has joined with colleagues to initiate research on this new pneumonia virus to predict its duration, infections, death toll, and the impact on China’s economy for risk assessment, based on intelligent information processing methods.
This study first analyses the national and global infection status of the Coronavirus Disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19). It then uses the trend comparison method to predict the inflection point and key point of the COVID-19 virus by comparison with the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) graphs, followed by using various tools to predict infections, deaths, and GDP in China.
Finally, it discusses and assesses the impact of these results. This study argues that despite the significant impact of the pandemic, China’s economy will continue to maintain steady development.
The results indicate that the transfection rate of COVID-19 is 57.87 times faster than that of SARS. Although, the number of infections and deaths from COVID-19 is 17.22 times and 2.09 times that of SARS respectively, the case fatality rate is not high.
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Yue, X.-G.; Shao, X.-F.; Li, R.Y.M.; Crabbe, M.J.C.; Mi, L.; Hu, S.; Baker, J.S.; Liu, L.; Dong, K. Risk prediction and assessment: Duration, infections, and death toll of the COVID-19 and its impact on China’s economy. J. Risk Financial Management. 2020, 13, 66.