Last fortnight, countries in the Indo-Pacific region, as elsewhere, were absorbed in trying to make sense of the June 12th Singapore Summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. One of the biggest debates triggered in the aftermath of the event was in countries like Canada and Australia, where commentators and policy-makers contemplated whether it was time for them to build their own nuclear weapons, having so far been protected by the US nuclear umbrella.
Although this suggestion is not new in Australia, with prominent analysts and journalists mooting the idea last year, President Trump’s prevarications and lack of appreciation for US alliances and commitments have given fresh impetus to this recommendation. Analysts point to two major factors for the renewed surge in this debate: the fact that the wording of the statement issued after the Singapore summit didn’t constitute a clear North Korean commitment to denuclearise and more importantly, Trump’s willingness to trade the interests of an ally to cut a deal with an enemy. This presents US allies with ominous prospects. It’s reported that the US has suspended more joint military exercises with South Korea this week, as part of the carrot presented to Kim in return for his promise to ‘work towards complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.’ The biggest winner in all of this, analysts note, is China, whose primary ambition is to drive a wedge in US alliances in Asia and globally. Notably, the DPRK leader visited China for the third time this year, following the Singapore Summit.
In another concerning development, the US has postponed its scheduled ‘2+2’ defence and foreign ministers’ meeting with India, citing ‘unavoidable reasons’. Notably, this is the third time that this meeting has been postponed this year. Foreign policy pundits speculate that this a sign of growing indifference in US-India ties, already under some strain in light of tariff issues, India’s S-400 deal with Russia and the impact on Indian oil exports from Iran caused by Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA. At the time of writing, the US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley is in India and lobbying for India to cut down on its use of Iranian oil during her meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj.
The Seychelles President Danny Faure is on a six-day visit to India. Contrary to previous reports and amid ongoing domestic opposition in the island-state, the two sides have formalised an agreement to build a naval base at Assumption Island. In addition to this, New Delhi has cemented its defence partnership with Victoria by gifting it a second Dornier aircraft and $100 million Line of Credit to bolster its defence capabilities. The two countries have also signed a range of other pacts, including one on cyber security. Elsewhere in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), India doesn’t seem to be faring that well. India and Maldives’ relations have hit a rough patch with growing differences over Chinese activity in the small island state; Maldives has presented India with an ultimatum to withdraw the two reconnaissance helicopters it had gifted to the former by the end of June.
Meanwhile, there are fresh reports of Chinese intrusions in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which Beijing contests as its own. The latest satellite imagery shows that the People’s Liberation Army has moved 5km inside Indian territory and has set up a post in the strategic Tsari Chhu Valley. This tactic of salami-slicing an adversary’s sovereign territory and claiming rights over it, is characteristic of China’s strategy in the South and East China Seas. These revelations come on the heels of an atmosphere of bonhomie between Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping, displayed in summits in Wuhan and Qingdao over the last two months. Puzzlingly, the Indian government continues to deny any claims intrusions by China in Arunachal Pradesh.
The trade war brewing between the US and China since February this year, escalated further this fortnight when the former declared that it would go ahead with imposing tariffs on Chinese goods worth $50 billion. This, according to analysts, marks a turning point in the battle, as it has triggered a slide in the value of the renminbi. Interestingly, China has announced a long list of tariff cuts on goods imported from many nations including South Korea and India as part of its commitments under the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement signed in 2001. Analysts believe that this is Beijing’s attempt to rally support in its fight against trade protectionism. Amid concerns that the Chinese economy is slowing down, China has responded by freeing up $100 billion for use by banks and indebted small businesses.
Worryingly, the US withdrew from the United Nations Human Rights Council last week, reiterating the belief that Washington is retreating from its global leadership on these issues, ‘to resurrect a narrow and ultimately self-defeating definition of national sovereignty.’ This comes in the wake of global condemnation of the Trump administration’s policy to separate families trying to illegally enter the US (even lawful asylum seekers). The separated children were being held in cages, until a huge domestic outcry led Trump to sign an executive order ending the separation of families.
Philippines’ President Rodrigo Duterte sparked outrage amongst the Philippine people for calling God ‘stupid’. The comments have evoked a remarkable public response, especially given other news making headlines in the turbulent country. But perhaps unsurprisingly in Asia’s largest Catholic country these comments have struck a particularly sensitive chord. While known for his fiery language, Duterte has come under global scrutiny with London-based Capital Economics reporting that his “abrasive rhetoric and dictatorial tendencies are starting to undermine the country’s long-term prospects”.
And in other news from our region, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern became the second leader of a country to have a baby while in office in almost 30 years, after Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto had delivered a baby in 1990.
Significance for Australia
Notwithstanding official remarks, the Turnbull government remains circumspect about Trump’s ability to usher any real peace in the Korean peninsula. If anything, the Trump-Kim summit has served to further damage American credibility in the eyes of its allies. The debate to build an indigenous nuclear capability, unimaginable until last year, has gained serious momentum in the past fortnight with more and more voices lending support to the idea. It may be safe to speculate that Canberra would be listening carefully, this time around.
Reports of growing stiffness in US-India relations is likely to be unwelcome in Canberra. Both countries represent the pillars of Australia’s Indo-Pacific strategic reorientation as outlined, most cogently, in the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper. While there is no hostility between Washington and New Delhi, Canberra would be hoping that the two are able to overcome the irritants that have crept into the relationship recently.
India’s successful deal with Seychelles to build a naval base at Assumption Island would be welcomed by Canberra, which shares New Delhi’s concerns about increasing Chinese clout in the IOR. On the other hand, reports of further bittering of relations between India and the Maldives is worrisome. Further Chinese encroachment in Indian territory is bound to cause sleepless nights Down Under for its prospects of leading to armed confrontations between the two Asian giants.
Finally, Australia would be keeping a close watch on the escalating trade war between the US and China and its resultant effects on the Chinese economy. It’s important to remember that the Australian economy is heavily dependent on China’s and any signs of it slowing down would not augur well for Canberra.
