Political update in Myanmar
Myanmar has now been under junta control for two years. Even in the face of international condemnation and domestic resistance, the situation in Myanmar continues to decline.
The military regime has announced plans to hold an election that is likely to be held in August 2023. At the same time, the junta also imposed new rules on political parties to contest in this election. Under the new law, any party can be dissolved if found to have any sort of cooperation, involvement, or communication with so-called terrorist organisations. Moreover, each political party needs to have at least 100,000 members within three months and a deposit of over USD 40,000 at the Myanmar Economic Bank.
Although the junta chief ensured the election would be free and fair, some have argued that the requirements are impossible to meet within the deadline obviously working in the junta’s favor. In response, the National League for Democracy (NLD) has called this move a fraud and has not acknowledged it as a legitimate election. The United States has also dismissed it while Russia has shown its support for the election in August. Another signal of the election working to favour the junta is their plan to eliminate the first-past-the-post system that was used in the election in 2020 and 2015 which resulted in the victory of the NLD. Fundamentally, however, many are concerned that the election will spark violence.
At the mark of the two-year anniversary of Myanmar’s military coup, the junta extended the country’s emergency rule for six more months, which has already exceeded the constitutional limitation on emergency extensions. This—based on the Tatmadaw—was to allow efforts to rebuild a peaceful environment that has been undermined by resistance against the regime.
Protestors reacted negatively to the extension by staging a silent strike by deserting streets and commercial areas with businesses and houses remaining shut. The General Strike Coordinating Body, an opposition body created after the coup, asked people to remain indoors from 10:00am to 3:00pm to oppose the junta’s illegitimate ruling. Many believed the silent strike is evidence of the people’s unity in regaining the country’s peace and democracy.
Human Rights groups believed Min Aung Hlaing, the junta’s chief, is solely focusing on grabbing power and ignored the people’s suffering. While quiet in Myanmar, Burmese protestors living abroad took to the streets in front of Myanmar’s embassies in South Korea, Japan, Thailand, and the Philippines demanding that action be taken against the Tatmadaw and that the National Unity Government (NUG) should be recognised as Myanmar’s legitimate government. The United States, the UK, Canada, and Australia all announced new sanctions against the junta while the EU and 22 other countries strongly urged the junta to cease violence and abuse.
With the state’s emergency extension and the upcoming election plan—viewed by many as a sham—democracy and human rights continue to be heavily undermined. The need for peace very much remains.
The Philippines granted the US greater access to its military bases
Manila has allowed the United States to enlarge its military access on four more of its army bases, it announced on 2 February 2023.
Under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), the United States will modernize its military operation units at the bases in an attempt to deter China’s aggression in the South China Sea. Along with the five existing bases, these future military strongholds have been slated for joint training, fuel storage, and housing with a focus on improving infrastructure and technology. However, due to the Philippines’ constitution, the US won’t have a permanent presence but could rotate its troops for extended stays. The bases are expected to be in the northern part of the country close to Taiwan.
This move has triggered a response from China as they believe that by allowing the US more access to the Philippines’ military bases tensions will be heightened and regional security will be undermined. China sent a warning to other countries, stating that they should avoid being used by the US as chess pieces in a strategic conflict. The US has, of course, praised this decision by the Philippines and allocated more than USD 82 million for infrastructure development in the five existing bases. The Philippines welcomed this vital cooperation with the US.
International reactions have been mixed with some viewing this as a win for the US to deter China while others warned that it could bring the Philippines closer to conflict. Undoubtedly, this decision will give the US a greater foothold in the region. Manila will need to very cleverly maneuver between the two giants in the region as they balance out their strategic interests with both states.
The outcome of the 2023 ASEAN Foreign Minister Meeting
ASEAN held its 32nd ASEAN Coordinating Council (ACC) and ASEAN Foreign Minister (AFM) Meeting on 3 February 2023 in Jakarta, after Indonesia assumed the ASEAN Chairmanship.
Various subjects were discussed in the meeting such as Timor-Leste’s full membership in ASEAN, the RCEP, strengthening health cooperation, and geopolitical issues. The primary focus of the meetings, however, was on the situation in Myanmar. ASEAN was disappointed by the lack of progress that has been made in the five-point consensus to date since 2021. In response, Indonesia—as the ASEAN Chair—will establish an ASEAN Special Envoy to Myanmar Office in Jakarta to manage how the bloc should deal with the challenges by engaging with all actors in Myanmar. The ASEAN Chair proposed an implementation plan of the current five-point consensus which would serve as a guide to managing conflict in Myanmar. Interestingly, during the meeting, the ministers couldn’t unanimously agree to include Aung San Suu Kyi’s name in the official statement.
The ASEAN Chair made it clear that the Myanmar issue will not hinder ASEAN’s progress and the bloc is determined to maintain peace and stability through a paradigm of collaboration. Despite this, some heavily urged ASEAN to review its non-interference principle as there are many gaps that make it difficult for states to comply with ASEAN standards.
Indonesia made concrete steps on the Myanmar issues during the meeting. Now the ASEAN Chair must drive the member states to cooperate to see genuine change in Myanmar that may return it to peace.
Sovinda Po is a Research Assistant at the Griffith Asia Institute.
