For nearly eight decades, the United States has dominated the international order, setting the rules for global diplomacy, trade, security, and innovation. This dominance has been a cornerstone of the “Pax Americana” — a relatively stable, US-led world order. However, with Trump’s re-election, the majority of Americans have endorsed a leader who pledges to break from tradition, disrupt alliances, and fundamentally redefine America’s role on the global stage. Ironically, this pivot may empower China’s global ascent, weakening the US’s influence in ways that could cement Beijing’s vision for a multipolar world.
A new era in US-China competition: The four pillars of American influence
America’s international clout has long relied on four pillars: robust defence alliances, economic partnerships, soft power appeal, and technological leadership. Trump’s policies seem poised to shake, if not dismantle, each of these pillars. In contrast, China remains steadfast, projecting itself as a stable and strategic alternative. As the US retreats from multilateral engagement and pivots towards a transactional foreign policy, China has an unprecedented opportunity to fill the void.
1. Defence and security: Dismantling alliances and strategic ambiguity
Trump’s re-election signals a shift towards a more transactional defence strategy that could redefine alliances across the Indo-Pacific. Countries like Taiwan and the Philippines, who have depended on the US for deterrence against Chinese aggression, may find themselves in an uncertain position. Taiwan, for instance, faces an increasingly assertive Beijing, which has made it clear that “reunification” with the mainland is a priority. Meanwhile, the Philippines relies on explicit US defence support to counter China’s sweeping claims in the South China Sea — claims that were ruled illegal by an international tribunal in 2016.
Under Trump’s “America First” doctrine, however, security guarantees could come with a hefty price tag. Allies may be asked to “pay their fair share,” a demand that could alienate smaller nations unable or unwilling to bear the financial burden. Without credible US backing, countries in Southeast Asia may seek accommodation with China, whose military presence and economic reach make it the dominant power in the region. For these nations, facing China without US support could seem futile, potentially leading to pragmatic compromises, as Indonesia appeared to signal in November with a softened stance on China’s South China Sea claims.
2. Trade and investment: Protectionism alienates allies, drives global business towards China
Trump’s protectionist trade policies are likely to disrupt established economic relationships, not only with adversaries like China but also with long-standing allies in Europe and Asia. Already, the German stock index DAX fell upon Trump’s re-election, signalling European investors’ fears of heightened US protectionism. Trump’s approach, which includes tariffs on a wide range of imports, risks isolating the US from the global trading system. For European companies, whose success depends on stable access to markets, America’s rising barriers may prompt a re-evaluation of investment priorities. Meanwhile, China, despite its complex regulatory environment, offers a vast and increasingly accessible market.
China’s economic ties with ASEAN, Australia, and the EU have strengthened significantly, with Beijing now the largest trading partner for many of these countries. While economic dependence on China poses political risks, businesses may see it as the safer bet compared to navigating an unpredictable US market. This shift will deepen China’s economic influence and entrench it as a central player in global trade networks, particularly as more countries pivot towards Beijing for predictable and less politicised economic growth opportunities.
3. Global governance: China’s rise in multilateral institutions as the US retreats
Trump’s return to office suggests a continued retreat from multilateralism, a stark contrast to China’s active engagement in global institutions. The US has long championed a rules-based international order, but Trump’s scepticism toward multilateral frameworks undermines American leadership in global governance. In his first term, Trump withdrew from key agreements like the Paris Climate Accord and was openly critical of bodies like the UN and NATO. With his re-election, US disengagement is likely to deepen, leaving a gap that China is eager to fill.
China has increased its influence in organisations such as the UN, where it promotes its own standards and norms on issues ranging from trade to technology. Beijing’s leadership in the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) and its commitment to green finance and technological standards signal an ambition to lead on climate and environmental governance already at this year’s climate COP, an area where Trump’s administration has deprioritised American involvement. China’s international engagements, including in green energy and peacebuilding, are reshaping global governance frameworks. As a recent Bruegel report notes, Beijing’s strategic participation in UN forums allows it to shape global norms, setting the stage for a more China-centric world order.
4. Soft power and ideological appeal: America’s declining moral authority
American soft power, once grounded in the allure of democratic values and rule of law, faces a crisis. Trump’s legal controversies, his approach to the press, and his scepticism towards the integrity of democratic institutions challenge the US’s reputation as a role model. With charges ranging from obstruction to mishandling classified information, Trump’s actions undermine the traditional image of American governance as transparent and accountable. This shift raises questions for allies and adversaries alike: what values does America now stand for?
In contrast, China’s soft power narrative is grounded in economic progress and political stability as well as its active engagement with the business world’s and society’s biggest worry – climate change. The “China model” emphasises development and prosperity over democratic freedoms, a vision that appeals to parts of the world where rapid economic growth is a priority. China’s accomplishments in lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty and its ambitious technological and green economy advancements offer an alternative to Western liberalism – a form of “green soft power”. Beijing’s 146 country strong Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) extends its soft power through infrastructure projects, while its state media increasingly influence global narratives, presenting China as a responsible and stable partner. For countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, China’s model is an attractive alternative to an increasingly insular and divided United States.
Strategic implications for US power
The effects of Trump’s re-election on US global influence are already evident. The 2024 ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute survey reveals that a majority of ASEAN leaders now view China as a preferable partner over the US in the event of a conflict. Across the Middle East, young people increasingly find China more attractive, and in Africa, a Gallup poll shows rising approval for China relative to the US, a trend that began during Trump’s first presidency.
In short, the US risks transforming from a global leader into a mere participant, driven more by short-term dealmaking than by a coherent, value-based foreign policy. Should China maintain its course of steady engagement, the world’s gravity may indeed shift towards Beijing.
Conclusion
Trump’s re-election marks a turning point in the US-China power competition. For China, the opportunity to redefine the global order has never been more promising. By maintaining open trade, expanding alliances through BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and BRI, and showing a willingness to lead on transnational issues like climate change, Beijing can further bolster its legitimacy on the world stage. The US, meanwhile, may find itself struggling to preserve its remaining influence as its traditional pillars weaken.
In this emerging multipolar world, China’s rise is likely to be met not with resistance, but with accommodation. As Trump’s America becomes increasingly isolated, the world’s leaders may find themselves choosing cooperation with a steady China over dependence on an unpredictable United States. For the US, the cost of a “great” America may be the erosion of a stable, American-led world order.
Professor Christoph Nedopil is the Director of the Griffith Asia Institute.
