The Year of the Snake begins on 29 January.
Snakes aren’t especially popular among most people. I know there are a few who keep them as pets, but most of us don’t like them much. They have the image of being dangerous and creep-crawly venomous creatures which might surprise you and bite without warning. And if they do bite, there could be hell to pay.
More seriously, the Book of Genesis in describing the “fall of man”, specifically blames the serpent (snake) for tempting Eve to taste the fruit of knowledge. She tempts Adam to the same disobedience, leading to the fall of man. “The Lord God said to the serpent, ‘Because you have done this, cursed are you above all livestock and above all beasts of the field: on your belly you shall go, and dust you shall eat all the days of your life’.”
So snakes are pretty low in the Western culture. However, they do have their strengths. The way some snakes shed their skin can represent a new beginning. In Chinese culture, the story of the “fall of man” doesn’t carry the same significance as in the West. And Confucian philosophy considers human nature as not too bad. Snakes can represent wisdom, intuition, transformation, and rebirth. Perhaps most important they are often regarded as “the little dragon” (xiaolong), with dragons being symbols of beneficent power, not evil as in the West.
We can draw attention to a few highly significant people born in a year of the snake, people who have made great contributions to humanity or knowledge or both. There’s the Polish astrophysicist Nikolaus Copernicus (1473-1543), a major figure in the “scientific revolution”, who established that the earth revolved around the sun, not the other way around. And then there’s the greatest of German literary figures Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832). And China has produced significant “snake” figures too. One thinks of the early leader of the Communist Party of China Mao Zedong (1893-1976), who is usually given credit for establishing the People’s Republic of China. And what about the current Party General Secretary Xi Jinping (1953-)? There are many others, but that’s a sample.
Let’s talk about years, not people. Apart from transformation, snake years can produce good harvests and procreation. In contrast to this, there have been plenty of quite nasty or unproductive “snake” years. One thinks of the Great Depression and the Wall Street Crash of (October) 1929. One that’s highly significant for the world is 2001. Pretty bad as being the year of the September 11 Incident in New York and Washington, but also the year when China joined the World Trade Organization. That was very good for its economic development and linkages with the world. Good luck and productivity for some, not for others!
I’m aware the US President Donald Trump and his people don’t seem too happy about how China has behaved in terms of trade. As I see it, they reckon China is acting too much in its own interests and ought to be serving U.S. interests more. They think increased tariffs are the way to go. My own prediction, and I make no pretence to being an economist, is that China will be able to cope with this and if Trump imposes savage tariffs he will do as much damage to the US and world economy as he does to China’s. We’ll have to wait and see.
Looking round the world, it doesn’t look to be in a wonderful place. Despite the just announced cease fire, the Middle East doesn’t seem too good. But maybe there’s hope for the world economy. And Trump reckons he’s going to bring peace, in particular in Ukraine. I have my doubts, but hope he will and am willing to wait and see.
The issue of most relevance to China, and probably Australia too, is Taiwan. We hear reports of provocations by both the US and China, but so far both sides are getting used to a dangerous status quo, but one that allows and in some ways even encourages economic and social development without too much misery on both sides. Will it stick for this year? Well, it has certainly stuck for a fair time. Even when I was teaching in China before the Cultural Revolution, my students shouted the slogan “Women yiding yao jiefang Taiwan”, meaning “we are determined to liberate Taiwan”. Of course, much has changed on both sides, but the unstable status quo that prevailed then still does so today.
I think the omens of the “year of the snake” favour peace prevailing and no war breaking out over Taiwan. One thing is very clear: a war would mean devastation both to China and Taiwan, and set back the world economy by decades. It would likely lead to World War III. The US would not necessarily win a war over Taiwan. Xi Jinping may have enemies, but I regard him as rational and cautious and certainly not a war-monger. I am less sure about Trump, who seems very narcissistic to me, but am prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt.
So the year of the snake 2025 will not see the outbreak of a war over Taiwan or of World War III! Anyway, let’s hope peace and common sense prevail!!!
Colin Mackerras AO FAHA is Professor Emeritus at the Department of Business Strategy and Innovation and the Griffith Asia Institute.
