Indonesia moves site of ASEAN military drills away from the South China Sea
In less than a month after the announcement, Indonesia had decided to move the location of ASEAN’s first-ever joint military exercise away from the South China Sea.
Originally, the drill was set to take place in the southernmost waters of the South China Sea. However, an Indonesian military spokesperson had announced that the location will be moved to the South Natuna Sea in Indonesian waters as “this exercise is focused not on combat, so it is best suited for the south that is in direct contact with the people”. The new locations were chosen because they are suitable for non-combat drills such as joint maritime patrols, medical evacuation, and disaster relief.
Some believed this shift is to avoid any reaction from Beijing while others believed that the original location could have deterred participation by some ASEAN countries, such as Cambodia and Myanmar who had not yet accepted the invitation. Arie Afriansyah, an international law of the sea expert at the University of Indonesia, said “maybe they are afraid of clashing with other countries. If it is conducted in South Natuna, Indonesia has full control.” While Teuku Rezasyah, an international relations expert, said Indonesia needs to explain in detail what it is planning in order to avoid any misunderstanding.
With the dates for the military drills set for 18 – 25 September 2023, Indonesia may need to make further such adjustments to ensure that all ASEAN members will take part.
Thai Parliament convenes a session on July 3 enabling vote for new premier
Thailand’s newly elected parliament convened on 3 July 2023, setting in motion the process of forming a new government followed by a vote to elect the next prime minister.
In mid-June 2023, the Thai election commission endorsed the results for the election of the 500 seat lower house, which would subsequently call for a joint session of the bicameral legislature to vote on a prime minister. The Thai King presided over the opening session of parliament, followed by a vote to choose the speaker of the house and two deputies a day later. A joint sitting of the House of Representatives and the Senate will follow to select the prime minister on July 13.
The Prime Minister (PM) front-runner candidate, Pita Limjaroenra of the Move Forward Party, believed he had enough support in the upper house to become the country’s next premier and was not worried that his position would be blocked by the Senate. The Thai armed forces and the Royal Thai Police are also preparing measures to deal with turmoil and violence should Pita fail to be elected prime minister. Meanwhile, the Move Forward, Pheu Thai, and six smaller parties have formed a coalition that has agreed to support Move Forward Party leader Pita to become the Prime Minister.
The July 13 parliamentary session promises to determine whether Thailand will have its first non-military aligned Prime Minister since the coup in 2014 or, as many believe, push Thailand into further turmoil.
Vietnam’s current relations with the US and China
Recently, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam has forged surprisingly rapid engagement policies with the United States and China.
In a rare event on 25 June 2023, the aircraft carrier – USS Ronald Reagan – and two escort missile cruisers made a port visit to the central Vietnamese city of Danang, seeking to upgrade the United States’ formal ties with Vietnam amid Hanoi’s frequent disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea. This is only the third time a US aircraft carrier has visited Vietnam since the end of the Vietnam War in 1975. The sailors onboard the carrier also volunteered at several community relations events, would play sports with local athletes, and take part in other cultural and professional exchanges during the visit through June 30.
While the US – Vietnam relations are improving, Beijing and Hanoi relations are also seeing progress. Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, on 27 June 2023, to promote the relationship between the two parties and nations, and further strengthen cooperation in the areas of their economies, trade, and enhanced connections. China has also considered Vietnam a priority partner in its overall periphery diplomacy with Xi saying “it is a fine tradition for the leaders of the two parties and countries of China and Vietnam to visit each other like relatives.” China also offers closer military cooperation with Vietnam – China is willing to work with Vietnam to strengthen high-level communication and cooperation between their militaries. These meetings come at a time when Hanoi and Beijing maintain territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
Truong Nhan Tuan, a France-based observer of Vietnamese political affairs, believed the timing of the two events was not a random coincidence and was more akin to “seeing off one person at the front door while welcoming another at the rear”. Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry believed the US aircraft carrier’s visit to be a “normal friendly exchange for the sake of peace, stability, cooperation, and development in both the region and the world.” Some also believed that Vietnam needs to balance its sensitive ties with Beijing and the US. Domestic opinion polls suggest that Vietnam’s people have among the highest levels of pro-US sentiment in Southeast Asia. Others believe the US needs to make clear to Vietnam the extent of its commitment to the region given the tyranny of distance and the fact that China can more credibly threaten to punish Vietnam than the US can promise protection. Vietnam has become a focal point for both Beijing and Washington. Hanoi needs to carefully convey its foreign policy in a way that it can safely cooperate with the two giants while not causing any confusion over picking sides with either one of them.
AUTHOR
Sovinda Po is a Research Assistant at the Griffith Asia Institute.
