‘How do we go back to politics when politics right now is in suspended animation…politics is at a standstill?’. Indian journalist Shekhar Gupta sums up the frustration of all writers, analysts, commentators across the world who’re showing signs of fatigue vis-a-vis writing about COVID-19, which has taken over our lives in a way no event has, in living memory, at least. And yet, politics does form an important framework to analyse global COVID-19 responses- whether it’s the battle of narratives on how the pandemic began, or the credibility of international institutions such as the World Health Organization, which refuses to acknowledge Taiwan’s successes in tackling the crisis so far. Other significant events also continue to take place but are getting much less attention.

Broadly, competition between the US and China has intensified in the wake of COVID-19 and the fault lines have become much sharper. This fortnight, US President Donald Trump signed the Taipei Act into law, which seeks to reward third countries which maintain or upgrade relations with Taiwan and reduce US engagement with and aid to nations that take Beijing’s side on the matter. The new law also enables the US to advocate for Taiwan’s inclusion in international organisations. China has been ramping up pressure on countries to de-recognise Taiwan for the past few years, using a carrot-and-stick approach in order to isolate it. As the Financial Times notes, this move represents the most intensive US push for Taiwan’s international recognition since it ended diplomatic ties with Taipei in 1979. Beijing, unsurprisingly, has attacked the US over this legislation, calling the law ‘evil’.

Amid rising tensions, the US warship USS McCampbell sailed through the Taiwan strait earlier this fortnight. Last month, there was another minor military face-off between Taiwan and China as the latter’s aircrafts entered Taiwan’s airspace for ‘night-time exercises’, in response to which Taiwanese jets were dispatched as warning. China’s clearly trying to seek advantage of the disruption caused by the pandemic to pursue adventurism in the region- Taiwan is likely to be a major flashpoint in the coming weeks and months. The US military, meanwhile, has applied for US$20 billion in funding from the Pentagon to combat Beijing’s growing clout in the Indo-Pacific.

Speaking of adventurism in the face of crisis, a Chinese coastguard ship sank a Vietnamese fishing vessel near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea this fortnight. This provoked a response from the US State Department, which issued a statement expressing serious concerns over Chinese activity to further ‘assert (its) unlawful maritime claims and disadvantage its Southeast Asian neighbours in the South China Sea.’ The statement also implored Beijing ‘to remain focused on supporting international efforts to combat the global pandemic, and to stop exploiting the distraction or vulnerability of other states…’

Meanwhile, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank approved an emergency loan to China worth US $352 million to help it tackle the pandemic. The funds will be used to procure medical supplies and improve health infrastructure in Beijing.

President Trump issued a vehement attack on the WHO this week, blaming it for kowtowing to Beijing’s line on the pandemic and for delaying critical information that could have prevented the loss of thousands of lives; he has even threatened to pull funding from it. This comes on the heels of the publication of an embarrassing interview of a senior WHO official who refused to answer questions on Taiwan’s response to COVID-19, indicating concerns over China’s sensitivities. While critics say that Trump is merely looking to deflect the blame of his inaction on others, it’s undeniable that the WHO’s sensitivity to Beijing renders it unreliable.

Moving over to another corner of the Indo-Pacific, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 21-day lockdown, while necessary to ‘flatten the curve’, has had a catastrophic impact on the country’s daily wage earners and migrant workers based in towns and cities. The move led to an unprecedented attempted internal mass migration of people, who left cities and towns to go to their villages, planning to walk hundreds of kilometres on foot. While most of them were subsequently stopped at state borders to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, several perished in their pursuits, and the rest are now being housed in camps in Indian cities. It’s being reported that the lockdown might be extended as new cases are growing exponentially, which is likely to worsen the plight of the poor.

India, this week, lifted its export ban on 24 pharmaceutical ingredients and medicines, including paracetamol, which had been in place since March 3. Reports suggest that India has agreed to export these drugs to selective countries- giving a preference to its neighbours and friends.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has declared a month-long state of emergency in several prefectures across Japan this week to curb the pandemic and has also announced a stimulus package to help the economy navigate ‘its biggest crisis since the (Second World) (W)ar’. Japan’s demographic challenges may become especially acute unless the government successfully contains the spread of the virus.

As most of the world transitioned to work from home arrangements this fortnight, concerns surfaced over the security features of a new conference meeting application called Zoom, which gained unexpected popularity with the onset of the pandemic. Its security flaws, lack of encryption, and possible routing of data through China, have led nations such as Taiwan and institutions like the Australian Defence Force and the Australian Parliament to ban its use internally.

Category 5 Cyclone Harold has wrought great devastation in Vanuatu this week, where experts say recovery measures could take around 12 months. Small island states are especially vulnerable during this time as they lack the resources or capability to deal with natural and health crises simultaneously.

Closer to home, there are encouraging signs that Australia has been able to flatten the curve as a result of strict social distancing measures implemented over the past fortnight. Health minister Greg Hunt has vowed to lift these restrictions in a phased manner but has stressed that it’s not going to happen anytime soon. ‘We’ve only just entered this period of stability. Now we’re in the suppression phase where we are doing everything we can to track down and to wipe out community-to-community transmission….as we get on top of that and medical advice is clear, then we will begin to take the steps or the road out.’

Significance for Australia

Policymakers in Canberra are keeping a close eye on how other countries are dealing with the pandemic and would be worried about what they see happening in the US, where projected number of deaths vary between 100,000 to 240,000 currently. Much of the focus will now be on resuscitating the economy and preventing a full-blown depression as well as to prepare for what will come after.

Intensifying US-China rivalry is a matter of great concern Down Under. Beijing’s efforts to leverage its advantages in the South China Sea and over Taiwan in the midst of a pandemic raise unappetising prospects for the US and its allies. On the face of it, China is advocating cooperation with the US, calling for ‘solidarity, collaboration and mutual support’, but its actions in the South China Sea and elsewhere belie its words. Moreover, by continuing to censor information about its containment measures and number of deaths in China, it’s not helping global efforts.

Canberra would also be worried about the plight of the nations in the South Pacific- it must ‘Step Up’ to look beyond its own shores and assist its Pacific neighbours to tackle the pandemic.

At the same time, a lone bright spot amid all the gloom is the resilience shown by nations like Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea, which have efficiently managed the outbreaks in their respective countries, as Michael Fullilove points out, adding that Australia should join ‘coalitions of the competent’.

We need to think about how we could ramp up our engagement with Taiwan and understand that it’s during times of uncertainty that we realise what really matters- that Australia needs its friends and partners in the region and that we’re all in this together.

AUTHOR

Aakriti Bachhawat is a Researcher with the Defence and Strategy team at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, and Research Assistant at the Griffith Asia Institute.