The coronavirus crisis, or what might be more aptly described as the coronavirus pandemic, has become the most definitive phenomenon this year whose second and third order effects are likely to be felt across the global economy for years to come. The biggest story this fortnight is the major economic downturn caused by falling oil prices in the global markets, triggered by the slowing down of the air travel and tourism industries globally. Australia has announced a ban on travellers from Iran and Italy (to be effected from later this week) and is continuing to ban all travel from China (except for Australian citizens and permanent residents).

The simultaneous hit taken by global demand and supply, has according to experts, ‘undermined the momentum of global economic growth.’ In fact, 9^th March 2020 is now called Black Monday because of the drastic stock market crashes in all major economies, including the US and Australia. There are now distinct murmurs of a global recession setting in akin to the 2008 global financial crisis.

COVID-19 has now reached the transmission phase in Australia which means that its spread doesn’t require contact with foreign travellers- it’s homegrown. So far, Australia has registered 112 confirmed COVID-19 cases and three deaths. The Australian government has announced a package worth $2.4 billion to tackle the epidemic and is also reportedly going to introduce a broader economic stimulus package to offset the losses faced by big and small businesses and especially the vulnerable sections of the society.

Moving on, Malaysia witnessed a fascinating end to the tumultuous political drama which had begun unfolding over the past fortnight after then Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad suddenly resigned from power. Earlier this fortnight, the Malaysian king swore in Muhyiddin Yassin as the country’s new prime minister after it was revealed that it was he who held the majority support in parliament rather than political heavyweights Mahathir and Anwar Ibrahim (Mahathir’s originally designated successor).

Mahathir and Anwar now find themselves in the Opposition but the former is still hopeful of coming back to power once a confidence motion is held in the next parliament session in May. However, it’s an open question as to whether Mahathir or Anwar will be in the lead if the current government does fall.

Tensions have been brewing between China and Taiwan again in recent times. Earlier this fortnight, a Chinese H-6 bomber again flew over the Taiwan strait, making it the second time in a month. On 10^th February too, the Chinese bomber, participating in military drills, had entered the Taiwanese air space. In response, Taipei scrambled F-16 fighter jets and a day later, two American B-52 bombers and a commando aircraft flew over the area. According to Chinese state-run news media, the military exercises were meant ‘to warn Taiwan secessionists and also demonstrate the PLA’s capability to solve the Taiwan question by force.’ This was a direct message to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen, largely seen as being opposed to reunification with China, who was re-elected in January this year.

 Speaking of Chinese military incursions, it was recently reported that a sophisticated Chinese research vessel was found mapping the seas off Australia’s west coast and near Christmas Island in January-February this year. These waters are frequently used by Australian submarines visiting the South China Sea; according to officials although the boat stayed outside Australia’s Exclusive Economic Zone, it’s clear that it was studying the strategic routes used by submarines. It’s probably not a coincidence that the Chinese vessel was detected in those waters at the same time as the scheduled port visit by the American fast-track submarine USS Texas at HMAS Stirling naval base near Perth.

The United Nations Human Rights Commission has filed an application in the Indian Supreme Court, challenging the Narendra Modi government’s recently passed Citizenship Amendment Act. Since its passing, the country has witnessed mass protests and demonstrations which culminated last fortnight in one of the worst communal riots in Delhi in recent times. India has reacted strongly to this, insisting that CAA was an internal matter and that the UN body has ‘no locus standi’ on it.

Significantly, the Indonesian government, following domestic outrage, summoned the Indian ambassador in Jakarta to express its concerns regarding the treatment of Muslims in India in light of the Delhi riots last week. Indonesia has become the fourth Muslim-majority nation to condemn the human rights violations of Muslims in India recently, joining Turkey, Iran and Malaysia (and excluding Pakistan). However, the Indonesian government’s statement, was according to Shekhar Gupta, ‘measured’ and expressed ‘complete confidence that the government of India will be able to manage the situation and ensure the harmonious relations among its religious communities…’

On another note, India has joined the Indian Ocean Commission, a multi-government organisation that manages maritime governance in the western Indian Ocean as an ‘observer’. The grouping currently includes Madagascar, Comoros, Seychelles, Mauritius and French Reunion. Experts say that the move will strengthen India’s security ties to these small island nations and with France, boosting Modi’s 2015 SAGAR (Security and Growth for All) initiative.

Closer to home, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern visited Australia earlier this fortnight and held meetings with her counterpart Scott Morrison. The two leaders discussed global trade, development in the Pacific and online extremism. During her address to the media in Sydney, Ardern slammed the Australian government’s deportation of close to 2000 New Zealand-born people with criminal records back to their country of birth. In a blunt message to Canberra, she implored the Australian government not to deport its people and its problems to New Zealand. Many saw this attack as unnecessary political grandstanding from the Kiwi Prime Minister and viewed it as a sign of the relationship being under stress.

Significance to Australia

The past fortnight has given Australian policymakers a lot to worry about- staving off an economic recession at home being the foremost priority. Canberra would be deeply worried about the impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese and global economy and the resultant disruptions in the global supply chains. The Chinese Communist Party’s attempts to deflect criticism of its handling of the crisis as well as propping up Xi Jinping’s ‘exemplary leadership’ during the epidemic should be noted with caution by Australia as yet another CCP trick to whitewash history. It’s in our interests to ensure that China doesn’t get away by absolving itself of responsibility for the pandemic, made tenfold worse due to its efforts to hide and censor information.

Increased tensions over the Taiwan strait are likely to cause sleepless nights Down Under. As Brendan Taylor notes, Australia has maintained an uncomfortable silence over Chinese aggressive designs vis-à-vis Taiwan for over a decade. Moreover, Australia would be caught between a rock and a hard place should a war break out between the US and China over Taiwan. It is thus, according to Taylor, in Canberra’s strategic interests to ‘advocate for more robust crisis avoidance, management and confidence-building, rather than focusing on our alliance obligations or lying low due to the fragile state of Sino-Australian relations.’

The discovery of the Chinese research vessel close to Australian waters will also be noted carefully. In January this year, India had discovered and expelled a similar vessel from its EEZ near the Andaman and Nicobar islands.

The worsening of the human rights situation of the Muslims in India will worry Australia significantly because as I’ve written previously in these pages, India’s democracy and secular characteristics are major elements of its soft power, which draw Australia close to it in the championing of ‘like-minded values’. Moreover, any changes in Indonesian public opinion on India matter to Canberra, which cannot afford chinks in its Indo-Pacific vision.

AUTHOR

Aakriti Bachhawat is a Researcher with the Defence and Strategy team at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, and Research Assistant at the Griffith Asia Institute.