Kim Jong-un’s visit to China and the diplomatic to-and-fro surrounding the upcoming summit meeting between DPRK and the United States were the most talked-about developments this fortnight. Last week, the North Korean leader travelled to China, which many saw as preparation ahead of his meeting with Donald Trump, to negotiate the fate of DPRK’s pariah nuclear programme and lifting of sanctions, scheduled to take place soon. It is speculated that Kim intends to use the PRC’s support as a bargaining chip, to shield him from US hostility in the event that the summit collapses. China, for its part, saw this opportunity as paving its way back to the diplomatic high-table and regaining its role as a ‘power-broker’ on the Korean peninsula, having felt sidelined since the two Koreas began talks between themselves in recent months. Moreover, China is worried about being isolated in the region in the event of an unlikely but nevertheless possible rapprochement between Pyongyang and Washington. On the other hand, the prospect of a war being triggered in the peninsula, as an outcome of a failed summit, also presents distinct problems for Beijing.
Meanwhile, Trump has sent some strong signals to North Korea about his intended posture regarding the negotiations; his replacement of the National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster by the decidedly more hawkish John Bolton, is indicative of his aggressive stance. Bolton, who was briefly US ambassador to the UN under Bush, has, in the past, advocated war against North Korea and Iran as the only way to halt their nuclear programmes. His appointment, as well the appointment of Mike Pompeo as the Secretary of State recently, is being seen as marking a turn towards a more bellicose stand on foreign policy and a significant moment in Trump’s presidency.
The Abdulla Yameen government in Maldives finally lifted the political emergency that had been in place since early February. While this was welcomed in the region, the ongoing struggle for influence between India and China vis-à-vis Maldives took an interesting turn when New Delhi recently conveyed to Beijing that it intended to ‘step back’ from the situation and expected reciprocation, to maintain ‘strategic trust’. This seems to be part of a larger Indian strategy directed towards a ‘reset’ in Sino-Indian relations, which seeks to harmonise ties between the two Asian giants. Indian defence analysts, meanwhile, decry a loss of influence and teeth in India’s foreign policy towards its neighbourhood in recent times, the foremost example being that of Maldives, where they feel that the Indian government should have intervened militarily. New Delhi has been making pointed overtures to Beijing in the last few weeks, the most recent speculation being that they would refrain from their ‘blanket opposition’ to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) ahead of Modi’s attendance at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit meeting in June this year. This could mark a huge step forward in China’s efforts to gain regional support for its mega infrastructure initiative even though India’s opposition to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) would continue. Meanwhile, there are renewed concerns over China’s attempts to change the status quo in Doklam, which is disputed territory between the PRC and Bhutan. Indian ambassador to China, Gautam Bambawale, in an interview remarked that the Doklam crisis continued to keep Sino-Indian relations ‘challenging’.
The tariff war between the United States and China continues to heighten with the latter imposing a 25 per cent tariff on selective US goods worth $50 billion as a tit-for-tat to US doing the same. This is the latest salvo in a new wave of trade wars between the two great powers which began with Donald Trump’s introduction last month of punitive steel and aluminium tariffs designed to curb Chinese dumping tactics. Meanwhile, Australia and South Korea, key US allies who sought exemptions from the steel and aluminium tariffs were notified that this exemption was only temporary and they would be subjected to import quotas instead.
Australia signed a strategic partnership with Vietnam recently, which marks a significant elevation in bilateral ties between the countries and is reflective of the positive momentum gained by the relationship in recent years. On another front, India and France conducted their joint naval exercise, Varuna-18, this fortnight in the Arabian Sea that included anti-submarine, air defence and asymmetric engagement exercises. Growing maritime collaboration between these two nations, augmented by a reciprocal logistical agreement signed last month, goes a long way in establishing France as a legitimate stakeholder in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
In solidarity with the United Kingdom’s decision to expel Russian diplomats, in the aftermath of the Skripal nerve-gas poisoning incident, Australia expelled two Russian ‘undeclared intelligence officers’.
Pakistan got its first woman opposition leader in the Senate, which is a historic development in a country with high gender-disparity. In other news, the controversy arising out of Australian cricketers’ admission of cheating in a test match in South Africa led to widespread condemnation.
Significance for Australia
Australia has vital stakes in the ongoing developments on the Korean peninsula. As a key US ally in the region, Australia seeks a peaceful resolution to the upcoming negotiations between the US and North Korea. John Bolton’s appointment as the National Security Advisor in this context has alarm bells ringing across the world, as in Australia. Given the unpredictability and mercurial personalities of the leaders involved, it is speculated that a breakdown in negotiations could quickly escalate to a war-situation.
Regarding the trade wars between the US and China, there are some reports that Australia may be in a position to gain as China plans to target agricultural imports from the US. It is being suggested that Australia may reap benefits from its cheap wine, fruits and nuts. However, it is important to keep in mind that although such gains may appear attractive in the short-term, any move towards protectionism in the global economy is detrimental to long term Australian interests. It goes against the fundamental Australian foreign policy priority of preserving a free and open liberal international order. Finally, the cricket controversy this fortnight delivered a blow to Australia’s soft power and image in the international community and went against Australia’s efforts to enhance its international relations through sports diplomacy.
