The most important development this fortnight, and indeed this year, is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s effective assumption of a dictatorship through the passage of constitutional amendments removing presidential term limits. This marks a significant departure from the consensus-based politics within the Chinese Communist Party that Deng Xiaoping had initiated in the 1980s to curb the Mao-era cult-obedience and to prevent excesses like the Cultural Revolution and the Great Leap Forward.
This turn towards further authoritarianism is a cause for major concern in the region with regard to human rights and freedom of speech and dissent, already heavily restricted in China but more significantly, also because it would mean a tougher and more assertive Chinese foreign policy. On the other hand, there are speculations that this change could result in a greater push towards liberalisation. Nonetheless, there is a growing consensus that rather than symbolising China’s rising power, this move is indicative of its weakness and its own perceived anxiety about its future. In the immediate wake of this announcement, there were reports of growing censorship across Chinese social media platforms to prevent any criticism or dissent regarding the decision, early signals of what’s to come. At the time of writing, the National Party Congress is in convention and expected to rubber-stamp this decision.
The Canadian Prime Minister’s visit to India served a lesson on how not to conduct oneself while on state visits abroad; the visit was filled with diplomatic faux pas all-round, with a controversy surrounding the inclusion of a pro-Khalistani supporter (accused of plotting the murder of an Indian politician in the 1980s) in Trudeau’s official entourage shadowing any attempts of creating goodwill. Trudeau was said to have been snubbed by the Indian government with less-than-warm receptions on several occasions during the visit. The belief that the Prime Minister’s embrace of Indian attire and traditions were meant for gaining leverage and endearment among his domestic constituents (keeping an eye on elections next year) further embittered relations between India and Canada.
On another note, the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) decision to put Pakistan on its grey list for countries supporting terrorist activities has created several problems for South Asia’s second largest country. This serves as a warning and requires Pakistan to commit to stop financing terror groups, including submitting an action-plan for the same at the next plenary meeting in June this year. If it fails to comply, there’s a danger that Pakistan could join North Korea and Iran on the blacklist, which would entail significant economic and trade sanctions. Also, the FATF’s decision could soon be followed by the EU adopting similar measures against Pakistan- a move that would hit its textile industry and banking channels to Europe adversely. Geopolitically, strategists are not too optimistic about Islamabad taking any significant corrective measures to combat home-grown terrorist networks. However, the fact that Pakistan’s traditional allies, China and Saudi Arabia, voted against it at the FATF February plenary, is cause for some optimism.
On the military front, India is hosting its biennial eight-day mega naval exercise involving nine nations, MILAN, at the Andaman and Nicobar Islands with the aim of expanding regional naval cooperation to combat crime on the critical sea lanes of communication (SLOCs). The implicit common purpose is also to foster understanding and coordination in the face of provocative Chinese posturing in the Indo-Pacific region. Interestingly, Maldives, in the shadow of the current political crisis and at conflict with the Indian government over the same, refused to participate in the exercise.
Following up on the Maldives crisis, it seems that the situation has become worse with the extension of the emergency with a further government crackdown on the opposition. In the latest step to impose his authority, President Yameen deported a delegation of international lawyers belonging to Law Asia, a regional lawyers’ organisation, who had been invited to monitor the situation by the Maldivian government days after the imposition of the emergency. The voices calling for India to intervene have become louder. More than anything else, Indian strategists worry about the example that is being set for smaller nations in the IOR, who’d perceive this as a sign of India’s weakness and may decide to hedge their bets on China as a security guarantor instead. At the time of writing, there were fresh reports of an imposition of state of emergency in Sri Lanka over the breakout of riots between Buddhists and Muslims.
In a somewhat bizarre development, Ivanka Trump, in her capacity as a senior White House adviser, was reported to have been on a diplomatic mission on her visit to South Korea (for the Winter Olympics), where she called for Seoul’s support to the US in ensuring ‘maximum pressure’ on North Korea to halt its nuclear program. The US announced its largest package of sanctions to pressure North Korea in time with the closing of the Olympics. Analysts questioned Ivanka Trump’s expertise and experience to talk on nuclear issues. And it is a consistent theme. Meanwhile, some saw Ivanka’s visit as a response to Kim Yo Jong’s diplomatic engagement at the opening ceremony of the Olympics, more as a reassurance of US friendship to South Korea. There were also reports that Ivanka refused to meet a member of the North Korean delegation, a former chief-spy, who’d sought a meeting with her.
Turning to the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte stirred another controversy when he proposed sending Filipino soldiers to undergo counter-terrorism training in China to reduce the country’s reliance on the US military for the same. Experts believe that the move is motivated by Duterte’s desire to consolidate his control over the military. Some, however, opined that the move would likely cause ‘friction’ between the armed forces and the President as the bond between the Filipino and US militaries would be ‘incompatible’ with Chinese training. This announcement is also part of Duterte’s larger strategy to build better relations with China.
Closer home, Australia has a new Deputy Prime Minister, Michael McCormack, following a controversy involving ex-Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, which forced him to resign.
Significance for Australia
China’s turn towards dictatorship is an adverse outcome for Australia and for its efforts at preserving and promoting liberal values in the region. If the reports of aggressive censorship on Chinese social media in the wake of the announcement are anything to go by, prospects for human rights and freedom of expression are bleak. Moreover, a tougher and more assertive Chinese foreign policy would lead to major dilemmas for Canberra. With the recent stiffness in relations between Australia and China, in the aftermath of revelations of Senator Dastyari’s links to Chinese businessmen and accusations of Chinese interference in Australian politics, it is safe to say that this development is not welcome news to Canberra. The exact ramifications of the constitutional amendments are yet to play out but the situation is being closely watched, regionally and globally.
On another note, Australia’s participation at the ongoing MILAN exercise marks a positive step towards fostering regional naval cooperation. Given the volatile situation in the IOR and growing rivalry between China and India, especially in the context of the political turmoil in Maldives, Australia would be keen to see the resolution of the crisis; the curbing of Maldives’ democratic credentials presents reasons to worry. Meanwhile, signs of incompetent US foreign policy and lack of leadership from Australia’s foremost security partner and ally are extremely worrisome. Given this, it makes even more sense for Australia to seek stronger ties with other like-minded countries in the region.
