The last fortnight witnessed the unfolding of dramatic events, turnarounds and some disturbing developments in the Asia Pacific region. The most talked-about development was another leadership contest within Australia’s ruling Liberal Party in which Home Affairs and Immigration Minister Peter Dutton challenged Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull for the command of the party. The spill was unsuccessful but Dutton, along with several ministers, handed their resignations to the prime minister. Experts say that the 48-35 vote in favour of Turnbull was too close for comfort and it’s reasonable to believe that his problems aren’t over by any means and that there could be another challenge to his leadership soon. Shortly after the spill, the government survived a no-confidence motion by the opposition in the parliament.
The rift within the Liberals is the result of a simmering disaffection among several party members with regard to what they consider Turnbull’s betrayal of the party’s conservative base and values. The immediate trigger was the question over supporting the National Energy Guarantee bill, that formed part of the Australian government’s commitment to cut emissions by 26% under the Paris Climate Agreement that it signed in 2015. This week, with a view to assuage the concerns of those unhappy with the bill, the Turnbull government announced its decision to walk away from the international treaty. Nonetheless, the move failed to curb the gloom within the party. Such politicking has become a common feature of Australian politics in the last decade, a telling indictment of which is that no prime minister has lasted a full term since 2007.
The US has announced its plan to create a Space Force as the country’s sixth military service by 2020. The new department would cover a wide range of space-based capabilities including satellites which run the GPS facilities to sensitive missile launch sensors. The discovery of a mysterious and possibly rogue Russian satellite in the last few weeks has reinforced American beliefs of the need to treat the space as a distinct military domain and to prepare for a space arms race with China and Russia. However, critics are questioning the utility of a separate department and the costs of the venture given the air force already deals with space threats.
The UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination has claimed that China has incarcerated more than a million people, mostly ethnic Muslim minority Uighurs, in secret camps or ‘counter-extremism centres’ and another two million people in ‘re-education centres’. The PRC has a history of repressing its ethnic and religious minorities, especially in Xinjiang and Tibet, to preserve political and social stability within the country. The recent findings add veracity to similar claims reported in the media in the last few months. The Chinese government has also stepped up surveillance efforts in Xinjiang using the latest technology. Beijing cites a growing trend of radical Islamisation and separatism in Xinjiang as dangers to the nation’s cohesion but at the same time has rejected the UN’s findings of mass internment of Uighurs as ‘completely untrue’.
Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen became the first Taiwanese leader to speak publicly on US soil this fortnight, infuriating Beijing. In her speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, Ing-wen extolled the virtues of liberalism and remarked that Taiwan is ‘willing to jointly promote regional stability and peace under the principles of national interests, freedom and democracy.’ In response, Beijing lodged a formal protest with the Washington, calling on the latter to ‘abandon its Cold War mindset and zero-sum philosophy and view China and Sino-US relations in an objective perspective.’ The US, however, has denied any change to its ‘One China’ policy.
Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad has cancelled two Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects due to fears of bankruptcy. Critics have lauded Malaysia’s pushback against Beijing’s mammoth project and hailed it as an example of standing up to China. However, others say that the veteran politician has displayed pragmatism by not alienating China completely. On a visit to the PRC this week, he assured Beijing that his decision to scrap the projects was solely driven by fiscal concerns and not based on geopolitical calculations. On another note, Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte raised the temperature with China this fortnight by issuing a rare, direct public criticism of the latter on its aggressive unilateral actions and militarisation in the South China Sea region.
In another part of the Asia Pacific, Russia and Pakistan have signed a military cooperation pact which represents a significant shift in the regional geostrategic equations. The deal will pave the way for Russia to offer training to Pakistan’s armed forces in the wake of US suspending its military cooperation with the latter. Experts also attribute this development to the strengthening of American and Indian defence and security ties in the last few months.
On the other hand, Indian and Japanese defence ties have grown stronger with the two nations agreeing to hold their first-ever joint army exercise later this year, which was decided during a defence ministerial dialogue in New Delhi this week. Also, it is reported that Tokyo and New Delhi may sign a logistics exchange and support agreement during prime minister Modi’s visit to Japan in October this year, which would further augment interoperability between their armed forces.
The Indian state of Kerala experienced its worst floods in a century in the last two weeks. Around 400 people are believed to be dead and millions rendered homeless and temporarily sheltered in rehabilitation centres. The Indian army and navy have been relentless in their relief and rescue efforts. Various countries as well as the UN have offered financial aid to the Indian government. However, New Delhi has turned down the assistance offers, insisting on being capable of dealing with the disaster by itself, citing a precedent set in the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami relief operations.
This fortnight was earlier marred by Australian senator Fraser Anning’s shocking and xenophobic maiden speech in the federal parliament calling for the revocation of the White Australia policy and ending with the suggestion of finding a ‘final solution’ to Muslim immigration. This speech and especially its invocation of the memories of the Jewish genocide during the Second World War received all-round condemnation and was rejected by both ends of the Australia political spectrum.
Veteran politician and former Indian prime minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee passed away last week generating a wave of national and international tributes to his legacy and especially his acumen and foresight as a foreign policy realist. His most important achievement was to declare India an overt nuclear power by testing its first nuclear bomb and following up with a restrained nuclear doctrine to ensure the prevention of a nuclear arms race in the subcontinent.
Significance for Australia
This fortnight marked another tumultuous episode in Australian politics- and it isn’t over yet. The political games over the Liberal party’s leadership continue and at the time of writing, there are speculations that another challenge may come to the fore soon. Needless to say, this doesn’t bode well for Australia’s reputation as a developed liberal democracy as it sends a message of political volatility. Also, the Australian government’s vacillating stance on the Paris treaty is inconsistent with its aspirations of supporting a rules-based liberal order and is a blow to the global consensus on the need to prevent climate change.
On another note, the creation of the US Space Force is likely to generate interest and an equal measure of concern Down Under because of its potential to escalate into an uncontrolled arms race in space.
Next, China’s internment and repression of Uighurs is a matter of grave concern to Australia, which hosts a small but prominent Uighur diaspora. In response to the latest reports, foreign minister Julie Bishop remarked that the Australian government ‘shares concerns expressed by the international community on the situation in Xinjiang.’ The China Human Rights Watch Coordinator Sophie Richardson has urged Australia to take a more active role in pressing China on the issue but so far Canberra has been quiet. Perhaps given Australia’s recent efforts to ‘reset’ its bilateral relations with Beijing, after months of bitterness, Canberra finds itself in a delicate spot.
On another front, Mahathir Mohamad’s tactful diplomacy with China and sensible scrapping of unviable BRI projects would be seen favourably by Australia. Canberra has a vested interest in ensuring peace and prosperity in Southeast Asia and this development sets a favourable precedent for other nations facing similar dilemmas.
Finally, the strengthening of Japanese and Indian defence ties is also a welcome prospect for Australia as both these nations feature prominently in Canberra’s Indo-Pacific vision of a secure, prosperous and rules-based order in the region.
