CHRISTOPH NEDOPIL, GLORIA GE AND DIAN TJONDRONEGORO |
There is no time to waste. As we finalised the Griffith Asia Pacific Strategic Outlook (GAPSO) 2025, Brisbane faced Cyclone Alfred’s imminent threat and uncertainty—the city’s first cyclone forecast in over five decades. Although Alfred’s unpredictable trajectory spared most of Queensland from direct destruction, it brought record rainfall and widespread power outages. More than just a severe weather event, Cyclone Alfred serves as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities our region and the world face.
This moment highlights three critical lessons: preparation, resilience, and a clear strategic direction are vital in times of uncertainty. Rather than reacting passively or responding only after crises unfold, communities and leaders must embrace proactive preparedness, rooted in reality.
Similarly, the global landscape in 2025 is defined by unprecedented volatility across geopolitical, economic, and environmental dimensions. Rapidly shifting power dynamics, particularly due to inconsistent leadership in the United States, have shaken confidence in international governance and cooperation. In Europe, aggressive climate action plans unfold amidst economic and political tensions, while evolving relations between the US and China create ripples of uncertainty across the Asia-Pacific, fuelling economic anxiety—particularly among ASEAN nations.
Yet, despite this volatility, the fundamental goals of improving lives, generating shared wealth, and protecting our natural environment remain unchanged. Climate change—already negatively affecting over 80 per cent of people living in Asia and the Pacific—is not subject to political negotiations. The pursuit of inclusive economic growth and environmental stewardship must continue despite increasing geopolitical complexity. This is a moment to reaffirm and strengthen Asia-Pacific leadership in sustainable development.
In this context, GAPSO, produced collaboratively by the Griffith Asia Institute and regional partners, provides deep and current analyses, offering practical recommendations for policymakers, development practitioners, and scholars seeking actionable pathways toward sustainable development. The chapters bridge theoretical discussions and practical applications, each authored by experts uniquely positioned to elucidate the critical dynamics shaping the Asia-Pacific’s future.
Recommended actions
Drawing explicitly on insights from the six chapters, we propose actionable recommendations for immediate regional implementation:
1. Strengthen regional collaboration for sustainable development
Lessons from China in Asia 2025 (Nedopil & Dong) and Southeast Asia geopolitics (Haefner & Po):
- Deepen and extend regional coalitions like RCEP and ASEAN, expanding their scope to explicitly include green technology, sustainability, and equity objectives.
- Strengthen engagement with regional initiatives such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), BRICS, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to foster synergies and reduce uncertainty.
- Establish regional sustainable development funds to provide credit mechanisms for accelerated decarbonisation and a just green transition.
- Enhance regional economic self-sufficiency by promoting intra-regional trade, diversifying supply chains, and investing in renewable energy and digital infrastructure.
2. Align national financing with sustainability goals
Lessons from fiscal policy in South Asia (Hossain & Islam) and Pacific island uncertainty (Dirou, Forau & Sharma):
- Implement Integrated National Financing Networks explicitly linked to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to ensure long-term economic resilience.
- Incorporate social and environmental welfare indicators in national accounting, moving beyond GDP-centric measures.
- Strengthen fiscal policies to incentivise private-sector investment in renewable energy and climate adaptation projects.
3. Empower universities and institutions as sustainability leaders
Lessons from inclusion as a macroforce (Tjondronegoro, Kendall, Hunter & Mayer-Besting) and Pacific island uncertainty (Dirou, Forau & Sharma):
- Establish Track 1.5 and Track 2 dialogues with regional research and innovation hubs to build trust and facilitate knowledge-sharing on sustainable development strategies.
- Strengthen the role of universities and research institutions in policy-making, ensuring evidence-based decisions on climate adaptation and inclusive economic development.
- Fund academic-industry-government collaborations that target real-world sustainability challenges, fostering innovation and regional cooperation.
4. Drive ethical and inclusive digital transformation
Lessons from China’s technological advancements (Nedopil & Dong) and Asia-Pacific Green Development Agenda (Nedopil et al):
- Establish enforceable ethical AI and digital governance standards to ensure equitable access to technology in healthcare, education, and economic participation.
- Invest in digital literacy programs and equitable infrastructure to bridge economic and social divides, particularly in rural and underserved communities.
- Leverage technological capabilities to support regional partners in sustainable digital development, fostering inclusive economic growth.
Regional highlights
China in Asia in 2025 – a reliable rock in a stormy sea? authored by Christoph Nedopil (Griffith Asia Institute) and Jean Dong (Harvard Kennedy School). In this chapter, the authors emphasise that understanding China’s evolving role in the Asia-Pacific region requires a nuanced approach that balances risks and opportunities. Their analysis centred around four key areas: China’s growing global influence, its leadership in the green transition, technological advancements, and economic trajectory. China’s increasing influence is marked by strategic investments and diplomatic efforts, which can stabilise or destabilise regional dynamics. Simultaneously, its significant investments in renewable energy technologies position China as a major player in global sustainability efforts, offering opportunities for collaboration with other Asian economies. Rapid advancements in technologies like AI and telecommunications enhance China’s global competitiveness but also pose challenges relating to technological dominance and security. Although China’s economic growth is moderating, its focus on sustainable development continues to impact regional economic dynamics. A balanced understanding of China’s role is essential for developing effective strategies and seizing emerging opportunities in an increasingly unpredictable global environment.
Geopolitics, non-traditional security and political dynasties in Southeast Asia authored by Andrea Haefner (Griffith Asia Institute) and Sovinda Po (Center for Southeast Asian Studies). This chapter explores five key trends shaping Southeast Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific region from 2025 to 2028 and beyond: geopolitics and foreign policy, public health challenges, the resurgence of political dynasties, economic transitions, and non-traditional security threats at sea. Addressing these developments is essential for achieving sustainable, inclusive growth and prosperity across the region, accelerating progress for all populations, and creating a more economically vibrant subregion.
Living with uncertainty in Pacific island countries: Where to turn? authored by Peter Dirou (Griffith Asia Institute), Luke Forau (Central Bank of Solomon Islands) and Parmendra Sharma (Griffith Asia Institute). This chapter highlights the inherent uncertainties in Pacific island countries (PICs) and how global megatrends are exacerbating these challenges. Policymakers in PICs face the complex task of balancing population protection and provision, often relying on external support that may not align with local interests. To address this, external partners need to shift their approach, focusing on their responsibilities to PICs and assuming more of the financial risks associated with island life. Strengthening the PIC agency requires developing local policy-making capabilities that reflect Pacific values and contexts. The 2024 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences underscores the importance of understanding how institutions impact prosperity. Therefore, there is a need for PIC policymakers to be trained in economic thinking that aligns with Pacific values, institutions, and policy challenges.
Thematic focus
Reimagining disability: Is inclusion a macroforce that will shape Asia and the Pacific for the next 20 years? authored by Dian Tjondronegoro (Griffith Asia Institute), Elizabeth Kendall (Griffith Inclusive Futures), Shawn Hunter (Griffith Asia Institute) and Elena Mayer-Besting (UN ESCAP). In this chapter, the authors emphasize that inclusion is not merely a peripheral concern but a powerful macroforce capable of accelerating or undermining social and economic progress across the region. They argue that prioritising the inclusion of people with disabilities in development strategies is not only a moral imperative but also a strategic necessity, as it will contribute to more resilient and equitable societies. This is particularly relevant in the Asia-Pacific region, given its diverse population and significant socio-economic disparities. Inclusion fosters innovation and productivity by ensuring that all individuals have access to opportunities, resources, and education. Consequently, its status as a macroforce makes inclusion even more critical to the region’s future than the identified megatrends.
Time to develop an Asia-Pacific Green Development Agenda authored by Christoph Nedopil (Griffith Asia Institute), Dhruba Purkayastha, Hemant Mallya, Kavita Vij, Nitin Bassi and Shuva Raha (Council on Energy, Environment and Water, India). The Asia-Pacific region confronts critical environmental challenges, including climate change, biodiversity loss, and resource depletion, while driving global economic growth. To address these issues, the authors in this chapter advocate for a comprehensive Asia-Pacific Green Development Agenda. This agenda should leverage the region’s strengths—such as biodiversity, technological innovation, and renewable energy—to tackle poverty, inequality, and unsustainable resource use. A strong regional voice is essential for navigating shifting global dynamics, and balancing mineral production with environmental concerns.
Rethinking fiscal policy to finance SDGs in South Asia authored by Mohd Avi Hossain (International Labour Organization) and Yan Islam (Griffith Asia Institute). The authors argue that it is essential to link macroeconomic policy to the global development agenda, as outlined by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on climate action. They further illustrate a plethora of regional contexts of South Asia with some country-level practices in which the macroeconomic policy framework can be tethered to the SDGs and the Paris Agreement. Their discussion highlights the linkages between macroeconomic policy, decent jobs, social protection, and the transition to a ‘net zero’ economy by 2050 in a just and equitable manner.
Conclusion: Full circle – from uncertainty to proactive resilience
The experience of Cyclone Alfred provided an unambiguous lesson: uncertainty and unpredictability are inevitable, but passivity in their face is not an option. The Asia-Pacific region, like Brisbane, cannot afford to wait or rely passively on traditional global leadership but must embrace proactive resilience. This includes accepting a new reality both of geopolitics and the laws of physics driving climate change, strengthening regional collaboration to better prepare for a new reality and having a clear compass guided by common regional goals such as inclusivity, equity and stewardship, many of which are expressed and formalized in the Sustainable Development Goals.
In practical terms, this means immediately strengthening coalitions on the regional level explicitly committed to various aspects of sustainable development, reshaping productivity to genuinely lift every member of society, empowering institutions practically, and rapidly adopting inclusive technological innovations.
Despite volatility, the Asia-Pacific region remains poised for transformative sustainable advancements. Rapid investments in renewable energy infrastructure, ethically guided artificial intelligence, inclusive economic frameworks, and resilient supply chains demonstrate a tangible capacity to respond effectively to instability. As such, Australia—together with regional partners—must take decisive leadership and act as a proactive steward of sustainable development, regional cooperation, and environmental integrity.
We present the Griffith Asia Pacific Strategic Outlook 2025 as your essential companion—offering clarity, urgency, and actionable insights to navigate today’s complex realities. May GAPSO reinforce your confidence in our collective ability to shape a future committed to regional wellbeing, sustainability, and resilience in the face of uncertainty.
Professor Christoph Nedopil is the Director of the Griffith Asia Institute. Associate Professor Gloria Ge is the Deputy Director, and Professor Dian Tjondronegoro is the Acting Deputy Director.
