Over the past few months, there has been a significant shift in the tone of the expert commentary on Myanmar’s civil war. Experienced observers are starting to hedge their bets on the eventual outcome of the conflict. A few are even allowing for the possibility of a military victory by the opposition movement, something once dismissed as impossible.

Following the coup on 1 February 2021, most professional Myanmar-watchers warned that, despite the unprecedented support shown for the pro-democracy movement, Myanmar’s armed forces (or Tatmadaw) should not be under-estimated. They had weaknesses, but were powerful, ruthless and determined to assert their control over the country, whatever the cost.

The nation-wide civil disobedience campaign weakened the regime but could not bring it down.

Please click here to read the full “Myanmar’s civil war and the myth of military victory” article published at AsiaLink, written by Griffith Asia Institute Adjunct Professor Andrew Selth.