IAN HALL |

Reports that the Indian government intends to block Australia’s participation in this year’s Malabar naval exercises are a setback for Canberra. However, better indicators of the health of the Australia-India bilateral relationship may be found elsewhere.

When Malcolm Turnbull returned from India earlier this month, it looked as though the Australia-India partnership was back on track, with renewed investment in bilateral educational diplomacy and a broadening of security ties. True, both sides conceded that they were unlikely to conclude the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA), despite six years of negotiation, but the overall mood was reasonably positive. The inevitable Modi-Turnbull selfies were snapped and respects were paid to industrial titan Gautam Adani and cricketing legend Sachin Tendulkar.

But as quickly as the bilateral bonhomie was established, it was apparently forgotten. On Turnbull’s return to Canberra, the government announced that it was to scrap 457 visas, of which more than a quarter are granted to Indian nationals. Given that labour mobility from India to Australia was reportedly one of the rocks on which CECA foundered, this news could hardly have been received with alacrity in New Delhi. Nor was it taken well by Indian students in, or intending to come to, Australia. It prompted Minister for Education and Training Senator Simon Birmingham to take to social media to try to calm jangled Indian nerves.

Then came news that India was reluctant to permit an Australian official to observe this year’s iteration of the annual Exercise Malabar that the Indian navy conducts with Japan and the United States. The ABC’s defence correspondent Andrew Greene reported that some in New Delhi were concerned that admitting an Australian observer might antagonise Beijing. Oddly, this story emerged on the same day that Defence Minister Marise Payne declared during a visit to Tokyo that Australia was “very interested” in renewed “quadrilateral engagement” with India, Japan and the United States. It made reading the tea leaves of the Australia-India relationship even more trying than normal.

If a week is a long time in politics, two are clearly an age in Australia-India diplomacy. Taking a step back, it is possible to put these ups and downs—and the Exercise Malabar issue—into some perspective.

Please click here to read the full “Is Exercise Malabar another snag in Australia-India relations” article in Australian Outlook,  Australian Institute of International Affairs by Professor Ian Hall.