PETER LAYTON |

The rise of China is the big international relations issue of our time. Unsurprisingly then, various solutions have been suggested to the strategic concerns China creates for Australian defence. In a rather broad sense, three alternatives are emerging.

The most recent is a ‘defence of Australia redux’ proposal by two eminent Australian strategic thinkers, Paul Dibb and Richard Brabin-Smith. They see a darkening strategic landscape where ‘for the first time since World War II, we face an increased prospect of threat from a major power.’ They worry not just about China but also Indonesia and its vulnerability to Islamic extremism. Their solution is for Australia to develop a competent anti-access/area denial (A2AD) capability. If the Chinese A2AD approach can keep the Americans at bay, the argument goes, then maybe we can do the same and keep a potentially hostile China or Indonesia at arms length, or at least deter them. The ADF force structure under this strategy would stress air and naval forces rather than a larger army.

The second approach is an ‘all the way with LBJ’ strategy. Stephan Frühling, in a defence industry paper, argues that Australia’s defence strategy should be mainly to supply a suitable piece of real estate from which American forces can operate offensively. The ADF’s primary task then becomes defending the Australian base area, providing an unsinkable aircraft carrier for (probably permanently based) US air and naval forces. Stephan’s argument grows out of his assessments of the hard realities of operating and sustaining the ADF in a time of large-scale conflict between great powers. In a China war, there would be considerable potential for escalation away from North East Asia and deep into our region. We might get badly damaged as a result. So practical military matters suggest Australia would be well served by getting very close to the US. Indeed our strategy would be simply to support the American strategy. The ADF force structure in this case would stress interoperability with US forces.

The third approach is a ‘forward defence with a twist’ approach.

Please click here to read the full “How should Australia defend itself against a rising China?” article published at The Lowy Interpreter, written by Griffith Asia Institute Visiting Fellow, Dr Peter Layton.