KHONDKER RAHMAN AND IYANATUL ISLAM |
Recent months have seen Bangladesh thrust into the throes of immense political and social upheaval following the dramatic fall of Sheikh Hasina’s regime on August 5, 2024. This seismic shift ended a 16-year rule marked by ruthless authoritarianism and set the stage for the July Revolution, which left an indelible mark on the nation’s history. Yet, amidst widespread hope for a brighter future, Bangladesh now grapples with a steep decline in law and order.
Based on personal reflections by Khondker Rahman, the following analysis unpacks the country’s complex socio-political fabric and the challenges it faces on its path to stability and progress.
Reflecting on the spirit of the July movement, where more than 1500 lives were lost, nearly 500 people lost their eye sight permanently and close to 50,000 people were injured, many optimistically believed in the rise of a transformed Bangladesh. However, the reality on the ground paints a starkly different picture. As encapsulated by a prophetic saying, societal character remains deeply ingrained, resistant to change overnight. Despite the sacrifices made during the uprising, old patterns of opportunism, division, and unrest appear to persist, dimming the hope for sustained reform.
The pervasive involvement of external forces has further complicated matters. Reports suggest that India has been actively destabilising the interim government through financial and operational support to former Awami League affiliates and other disruptive elements. This interference has manifested in orchestrated violence, creating a climate of insecurity where even public transportation is at risk of vandalism and attacks.
The political landscape remains fractious. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the primary opposition force, appears to be leveraging the instability to erode the interim government’s authority. While it once promised a fresh alternative, growing public disillusionment has left many citizens turning toward Jamaat-e-Islami or even newly-formed student-led political platforms.
At the grassroots, many former Awami League offices have been systematically taken over by BNP-affiliated groups, reflecting a symbolic yet volatile power shift. However, the lack of coherent leadership and growing criticisms of the BNP’s tactics suggest it is fast losing its grip on popular support.
The student-led Anti-Discrimination Student Movement—once hailed as a unifying force—has seen its influence wane since the uprising. Splinter factions, such as the Jatiya Nagarik Committee (JNC), have emerged but failed to connect meaningfully with the public. This fragmentation, coupled with turf wars between groups like Islami Chatra Shibir and BNP-backed Chatra Dal, has turned university campuses into unsafe places and have made them breeding ground for continued violence. The once-revered movement has struggled to maintain its legitimacy, with critics questioning its relevance in the current climate. This erosion of student power signals a significant shift in the dynamics of grassroots activism.
The role of law enforcement and the military has been ambiguous at best. Allegations of loyalty to the ousted regime among senior military officers undermine trust in their neutrality. Law enforcement, meanwhile, has adopted a passive stance in many cases, leaving citizens vulnerable to violence and chaos.
The interim government’s Home Affairs departments have faced sharp criticism for their perceived inaction, further eroding public confidence.
The interim government: A leadership in crisis?
Led by Professor Muhammad Yunus, the interim government faces mounting pressure on all fronts. Although Yunus remains a respected figure, his administration’s inability to maintain law and order or deliver reforms swiftly has fuelled dissatisfaction. The ambitious reform agenda, including election commission restructuring and constitutional amendments, suggests elections may not occur before mid-2026.
Advisors within the government have also come under fire, particularly for controversial statements and perceived inefficiency. While Yunus enjoys widespread support, his team’s fragmented approach undermines the progress made post-uprising.
For the first time in over five decades, Bangladesh’s media enjoys unprecedented freedom. However, this has also opened the floodgates to misinformation, disinformation and sensationalism. Current affairs programmes (known locally as ‘talk shows’) featuring recycled political figures dominate airwaves, offering little substance but fuelling confusion among an already weary public.
Key flashpoints: Recent events reflecting the chaos
- Rickshaw ban debacle: A hastily implemented ban on battery-operated rickshaws, which was later reversed, disrupted the livelihoods of millions, sparking countrywide protests and gridlock.
- Inter-college clashes: Violent altercations between student groups in Dhaka have left scores injured and several educational institutions in turmoil.
- Chinmoy Das arrest: The arrest of an ex-International Society for Krishna Consciousness (ISKCON)leader accused of inciting communal tensions has led to violent clashes, including the brutal murder of a government attorney.
- Garment workers’ protests: Prolonged strikes in a number of garment factories over unpaid wages in Gazipur highlight deep economic distress.
- Banking crisis: The central bank’s emergency bailout for failing banks has sparked fears of economic instability, despite assurances from the Bangladesh Bank.
Conclusion: A fragile future
Bangladesh finds itself at a critical juncture, its hopes for transformation overshadowed by chaos. The interim government, political actors, and civil society must navigate this complex terrain with care and focus on rebuilding trust, governance, and unity.
The nation stands at a crossroads, where the promise of the July movement risks being lost amid the growing anarchy. Whether Bangladesh can emerge stronger depends on the collective will of its people and leaders to rise above vested interests and prioritise the greater good.
Khondker Rahman has 38 years’ experience in urban planning and sustainable development. He led the development of the Qatar National Master Plan. He has also taught water engineering and environmental science subjects at various universities in Australia, Thailand, Qatar and Bangladesh. The views expressed here are strictly personal.
Iyanatul (Yan) Islam is an Adjunct Professor at the Griffith Asia Institute and former Branch Chief, ILO, Geneva. The views expressed here are strictly personal.Click here to read Khondker Rahman’s full article “From great expectations to grave concerns: personal reflections on Bangladesh today”.
