Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s longest-serving Prime Minister and the world’s longest-serving female head of government, could not escape the inevitable cycle of political change. Hasina’s 15-year tenure (2009-2024) was marked by a firm grip on power, supported by a loyal judiciary, media, and security forces. Her government, dominated by the Awami League (AL), silenced opposition and dissent, creating a governance structure that seemed unshakeable. Yet, on August 5, 2024, a student-led movement brought this fortress crumbling down. When the military, a key pillar of Hasina’s rule, withdrew its support, she fled to India, ending her long reign.
The movement that ousted Hasina began with opposition to a job reservation scheme favouring descendants of 1971 Liberation War veterans. This policy was seen as a tool for embedding loyalists in the bureaucracy. The youth uprising that followed led to tragic loss of life, with hundreds of students and civilians killed and thousands more injured or imprisoned. However, the students remained resolute, ultimately forcing Hasina to resign.
Hasina’s legacy is complex and her regime represents a cruel paradox. Despite her regime’s political repression, Bangladesh experienced significant economic and social progress under her leadership. Growth was sustained and rapid leading to a doubling of real per capita income between 2009 and 2023 – see Figure 1. Poverty fell significantly, and life expectancy increased substantially – see Figures 2 and 3. The garments industry and remittances continued to drive the economy, while new sectors like pharmaceuticals and shipbuilding emerged. Large infrastructure projects also enhanced connectivity within the country. A UN assessment also noted that ‘the country is internationally recognised for its good progress on several gender indicators’.
However, these achievements were overshadowed by widespread corruption, rising inequality, and environmental degradation. Hasina’s regime failed to legitimise these gains by denying Bangladeshis their basic rights and freedoms, including free and fair elections. Her perceived allegiance to India further fuelled public resentment, despite her efforts to balance this by courting China.
With Hasina gone, Bangladesh faces an uncertain future. An interim government led by Nobel Laureate Mohammad Yunus has been established, including two student leaders with full ministerial rank. However, tensions are brewing between the military, student leaders, and political parties like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami. While the student leaders favour a politically neutral government with a longer mandate to implement reforms and ensure free elections, the BNP-Jamaat alliance is pushing for quick elections, hoping to capitalise on the absence of the AL.
The road ahead is fraught with challenges. The interim government must restore law and order, reform the governance structure, revive the economy, and organise credible elections—all while managing high public expectations. The two leading parties, BNP and AL, along with their minor allies, have historically captured over 80 per cent of the vote in relatively free and fair elections, such as the one in 2001. Unfortunately, both parties harbour a ‘legacy of blood’ that has plagued Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Their relationship is marked by deep-seated animosity and a persistent culture of revenge politics.
The BNP-Jamaat alliance’s impatience could exacerbate tensions, as they see an opportunity to gain power in the wake of the AL’s downfall. The real battle for Bangladesh’s future is just beginning, and whether the youth-led movement can evolve into a new political force capable of challenging the old guard remains to be seen.
Iyanatul (Yan) Islam is an Adjunct Professor at the Griffith Asia Institute and former Branch Chief, ILO, Geneva. The views expressed here are strictly personal.
