In a recent PLA Navy (PLAN) journal article, South Sea Fleet officers declared that China has achieved military supremacy in the South China Sea. This may seem simply a statement of fact given China’s militarisation of its six newly reclaimed islands. Indeed, the CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative this week concluded the construction of military and dual-use infrastructure on the ‘big 3’ – Subi, Mischief and Fiery Cross Reefs – is largely complete. The PLAN, however, is literally the Chinese Communist Party’s armed naval wing and so this article was presumably published to convey specific messages.
For a domestic audience, the messages might be that China’s new assertiveness is helping restore national self-respect, that military power is important, and that the Communist Party is delivering high-quality outcomes. For an international audience however, the message appears more pointed: China now dominates the region and all should behave accordingly. As Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said earlier: ‘Here is a gentle reminder…China will not bully small countries, meanwhile, small countries shall not make trouble wilfully and endlessly’. In this regard, the article provides two valuable warnings concerning possible future Chinese actions.
The first warning is that a military crisis in the South China Sea is ‘highly likely’. The article suggests China should be ready to take advantage of such a crisis, to ‘hit the enemy where it hurts’ and ‘teach it a lesson’. The article notes that China did this before in ‘skilfully taking advantage of [the 2012 Senkaku Islands] crisis’. The implication is that China can gain by manufacturing a South China Sea crisis at a time and place of its choosing.
The authors reassure its Chinese audience that a crisis can be controlled so there is little likelihood of starting a larger conflict or war. ASEAN states have been ‘intimidated’ by the island building and lack credible military means while the Americans lack ‘the ability and will to engage in a military conflict or…war’. Such a prediction appears, at best, audacious given Donald Trump last year campaigned on the previous Obama administration’s lack of a forceful response to China’s South China Sea actions.
Please click here to read the full “Advancing China’s South China Sea dominance” article in the Lowy Interpreter by Griffith Asia Institute Visiting Fellow, Dr Peter Layton.
