The security situation in East Asia is precarious. There is the possibility that a war over regional supremacy may take place between China and Japan; or between the US and China. This is further complicated by the fact that the Cold War has not ended on the Korean Peninsula and North Korea possesses nuclear weapons. What is needed to prevent an eruption of war is a more creative approach to security architecture in East Asia.

There are two types of security threats or challenges in East Asia. The nuclear-related threat from North Korea is an imminent military threat. The China-driven challenge is more complicated and full of uncertainties. On the one hand, China can bring prosperity and peace if its rise is indeed peaceful. On the other, it can also lead to conflict and war if China turns to expansionism or its rise is not managed well.

Approaching security threats

Traditionally, states respond differently to these two types of security challenges. For a military threat such as that posed by North Korea, states are more likely to use ‘hard balancing’. This involves military deterrence and constructing security alliances to neutralise the immediate threats. For example, the United States and South Korea argue that the reason for the deployment of the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile defence system is to deter North Korea’s potential threats.

For a rising China, states are more likely to choose a ‘hedging’ strategy for a bet both ways. The term hedging refers to the financial strategy of making investments in both directions. For example, many states in the Asia-Pacific, including Australia, choose to deepen their economic cooperation with China, but at the same time enhance military and security ties with the US in order to prepare for the worst.

Please click here to read the full “A new approach to security in East Asia” article in Australian Institute of International Affairs by Griffith Asia Institute Associate Professor Kai He.